Alternative fuels...the future...

[Twilight Imaging.net]

I am curious as to the general opinions to the future of fuels and the future of vehicles...
It looks like right now...Hydrogen... with many other possibilities...

How long do you think it will be before alt' fuel cars are on the road and comprising the majority of the market?

Do you think, eventually, that gasoline fueled vehicles will be eliminated? If so, how many years...50, 60, 100, 150??
Without any political battles...I was just wondering what everyones take was on this...
Thanks...
Mike

[WILLY]

Well i dont think this can be discussed without discussing politics cause that and money greed is the reason alternative means of transpo is not on the road. :(

[kpaske]

I'll try to stay out of the politics, but WILLY is right - this conversation will almost inevitably head in that direction at some point. ;Db;

There are already plenty of non-gasoline vehicles on the road today - diesel, ethanol, electric, hybrid, WVO (waste vegetable oil), SVO (straight vegetable oil). Solar and hydrogen are even possible alternatives in the near future. The problem is that most of them aren't profitable, and have to compete with gasoline which is still relatively inexpensive. The other problem is a supply and demand issue - there is tons of petroleum being pumped out of the ground as we speak, and it breaks down into several different fuels in fixed proportions (kerosene, diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, etc). Unless you eliminate all forms of petroleum based energy, you still have to find something to do with all the byproducts. Most of the developed world is so dependant on these products, only a gradual transition is possible - it will likely come in the forms of biodiesel, ethanol, and hybrids. Will this move us closer to hydrogen or electric powered vehicles? Yes, but it won't happen overnight.

I think most people who fully understand the energy problems will tell you that we will inevitably have to stop using petroleum based products not only because of pollution (the global warming debate), but because it's in limited supply. If we start transitioning to alternative fuels, the supply could last much longer, but it will run out one day if we continue pumping.

My predictions (or let's call them wild guesses ;Db;):

-- Majority alternative fuels: 20-30 years
-- Completely off petroluem: not in my lifetime

[Joe_Black]

The irony of this is that petroleum products are the alternative fuels. Before petroleum fuels were common most road-going vehicles ran on either ethanol alcohol, vegetable oil (the original compression engine invented by Rudolf Diesel) or were electric. And a good many were external-combustion powered: Steam. Believe it or not, in the early 1900's electric cars outsold ICE (internal combustion engine) cars significantly.

And now here were are today, trying to figure out how to do something that was simple over a hundred years ago!

There's a lot of information out there about various engine fuels, and most of the true answers are in history. The unfortunate truth for us, and a convenient one for those profiting in the petroleum industry, is rampant ignorance on the part of the average citizen and an all-to-willing desire to believe without reservation anything spat at them from television.

As for predictions? We're a fickle species when it comes to that which sustains us, so when there's profit and greed involved all bets are off. ;)

[kpaske]

We're a fickle species when it comes to that which sustains us, so when there's profit and greed involved all bets are off. ;)

Yes indeed... One thing that keeps my outlook positive is the fact that there are some extremely smart, rich people on this planet that are actually interested in education and clean technologies and not motivated only by greed. Bill Gates of Microsoft is one that comes to mind, and Elon Musk of Tesla Motors is another.

[newthings]

My two cents –

I agree with Kpaske, 20 years to have seen a big shift. Things seem to have to get really bad to get any change. Planning ahead gets only as far as paper studies until the system crashes. Too much money being made off the “Low Hanging Fruit” It is the boring mundane truth that things don’t go ZAP and change; they creep along in small increments. A look at an old 1950 Popular Mechanics magazine will show what I mean. No flying cars today.

The concept of an energy ‘Tipping Point’ (Crash), is possible caused by everything from an Arab oil cut off to a new discovery of an alternative energy source. Things’ getting bad does not mean technology will pop to the rescue; they may just be bad for some time.

I always tell people that our grandchildren will say,” Let me get this straight. You had this thing called oil from which you could make all kinds of wonder things and you could not reproduce and you burned it all up? Were you nuts or just greedy?” We probably were.

China and India will not hold back on their economic growth for the sake of conservation and they will bid up the price of oil for us. They will have all of our money from their manufactured goods sales to pay the higher price. We will be (Are in) a death spiral of fewer quality jobs, little manufacturing in the US, and less money with which to buy things.

Batteries are a real showstopper. A few technologies have surfaced like Zinc-Air and Platinum fuel cells, but they only improve things a few percent and are very expensive relative to oil. Arthur C. Clarke once said, “ A suitably advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” I don’t expect any magic in the battery area.

As a worker in the semiconductor industry, it was always a joke that value of the solar cell energy production could never pay for the cost of production if you include the process from Silicon to finished solar panel. Some applications make sense like remote locations, but not as an energy source for the national grid. Home solar cells, in a wired area, are highly subsidized, meaning Siemens gets a big bite of taxpayer money. The subsidized cost of panels breaks even at 8-10 years and, guess what, the silicone cover seals break down in 8-10 years and the cover glass is clouded by pollution.

So here is my prospectus for the energy future –-

1. Fewer people. Worldwide crowding will trigger heath conditions resulting in a thinning of the herd. This won’t be pretty, but there will be more of everything for the survivors. You will be able to pollute and burn all you want and mother earth will just shrug. You won’t be able to make a large enough mess for natural cleaning processes not to dispose of. Then we will need to keep the lid on population. Doing it overtly now is not politically possible and it is too late anyway.

2. Some new energy sources will emerge. Iceland is producing Hydrogen from natural steam/electrical generation. It will get shipped to the east coast of America. Maybe 10 percent of the east could use Hydrogen; Iceland will be the new Saudi Arabia. Seal jokes will replace Camel jokes.

3. Atomic power will return. We have 105 reactors providing power now. The French recycle and recover fuel rather than burying it. We must get past the political issues and use what we have.

4. Coal. We are the Kuwait of coal. It will be an expensive fuel but coal oil can be made.

5. Methane Hydride. It is just laying in a water ice mix everywhere in the deep oceans in globally enormous quantities. Just go and get it. It is relatively expensive, but available and clean.

So much for my happy thoughts and good luck to us all.

Roy

[Techy-D]

There have been some electric's and BioDiesels running around here for atleast 10years. I'd venture that some folks don't tell anyone, because there is talk of "fines" for people doing this and not paying the roadtax that is tied to the "normal fuels".
Maybe it's the smaller towns and high concentration of technial folks around the Pacific Northwest, but I've talked with quite a few people who are atleast talking about building their own fuel saving vehicle, growing their own fuel, or they have played with some devices to improve milage.
I admit it's a pretty small % of the population, but growing. I think the mindset is shifting faster than the actual implimentation and so when it goes, it'll really take off. I'd venture to say that 25% of the city drivers (a car to just run around town) will be electric, or atleast hybrid, in 8-10years. Remember that tons of people went out and bought new cars while the interest was low, and they are not ready to throw them away just yet. When it comes time for another large cycle of car purchasing, we'll see how many choices we have. (Timing is everything)
I think we'll see a lot more Solar activity on homes & Cars and I really do like the Hydrogen idea, but I don't have much experince in that one... yet :)

[VehiGAZ]

I think one of the biggest determinants of the fate of alt fuels will be the fate of hybrids. By that I mean that how people feel about hybrids in 5-10 years will determine how open people will be to the next new-fangled green technology. Explanation...

Hybrids are now on the road in significant numbers, and although many people are quite happy with them when new, we'll see what the people have to say about them when they have driven them in the real world for 100k miles and have to deal with them when they are old beaters. Those battery packs will eventually have to be replaced at significant cost to the owners, or else they will just be driving a weak, small-engined jalopy. Similarly, those spent battery packs are nasty little toxic waste dumps that someone will have to pay even more to dispose of. Hybrids can easily get a bad reputation for being far too expensive to be stuck with past a certain mileage, and that mileage point may be not much past the point where the hybrid drivetrain has just paid for itself in fuel cost savings. What if a decent number of owners had to pay $3k-$4k to replace the battery pack and dispose of the old one at 80k or 100k miles? That would be bad. And what if you let the battery pack die and drive the car into the ground, and STILL have to pay $500 or $1k to dispose of the pack?! That would suck, too! People who go stuck with those bills will likely develop a low opinion of hybrids.

If that eventuality comes to pass (and I think it will, at least to some extent), and the world starts pushing some new fuel/drivetrain technology to replace hybrids, people may be far less likely to accept the new technology after being ultimately burned by hybrids.

The other Big Problem facing any new fuel is building a new and duplicate distribution infrastructure. America has had gas cars and gas stations for a hundred years, and the gas distribution network has expanded organically with the population, development, and road construction (just like McDonalds ;-). Any new fuel system is not only going to need the cars to use it, but the distribution network to supply it - all across the country, and all at once. That will be very difficult and slow to develop, and will constrict the growth of the new technology. To illustrate the point, think of how rare diesel pumps were (away from the interstates) just 25 years ago. My parent's 1980 VW Dasher diesel came with a book listing all the gas stations all across the country that sold diesel! It was a tough fuel to find, and it was in use by hundreds of thousands of trucks across the country! How easy will it be to find a hydrogen station in 5 years? or even 10? It's not exactly an easy and safe substance to handle, either, especially when pressurized to 3000 psi. (Oh, and it takes more energy to make than it releases when used, but that of course could change over time)

Anyway, any alt-fuel will have to make economic sense to most people (not just a few of them) in order to be successful. If it costs twice as much to buy the vehicle and twice as much to run it, not enough people will want it for it to go anywhere.

[kpaske]

Maybe I'm just an optimist, or maybe it's because I live in the crunchy Pacific North West, but I believe the tide has already started to turn towards alternative energy. More and more people are realizing how very dangerous our dependence on foreign sources of energy is, and considering all reasonable alternatives. These changes are most noticable on the West Coast and the North East, but I think the trend is quickly spreading to other major metropolitans also.

It is true that time will tell whether hybrids have finally hit the mark and will become more widely accepted by mainstream America, but even if they haven't, I don't think it will spoil the market for other alternatives for the reason stated above. As long as the hybrid (and battery) technology continues to improve and the major issues continue to be addressed, I personally think people will continue to buy them. There are so many options becoming available these days, if you don't like hybrids, buy a diesel. If you don't like diesel, buy an electric. If you don't like electric, buy a flex fuel / ethanol vehicle. And who knows what options will start to become available tomorrow?

Another major factor that I think could spread the popularity of new technologies much faster is advances in communication. Things like the Internet, GPS Navigation Systems and smart Mobile Phones and PDA's make the spread of information across the planet occur many, many times faster. You want to take a road trip across the country and drive on only BioDiesel? Go to google maps and do a search and instantly see all the fueling stations that sell biodiesel.

One last thing about economic sense - yes, I believe that this is really the clincher. Most alternative fuels still aren't profitable without government subsidies, which many don't support, and capitalism, for good or bad, has managed to stifle technological advances in these areas for many, many years. But growing demand drives new technology, and those with foresight have already seen that we have little choice but to move in that direction (or pump all the oil out of the ground until it runs out - China and India are helping to accelerate this).