Hubbert's Peak (or Peak Oil)

[nater]

All: BEFORE YOU READ THIS, I am sharing my thoughts. Please respect my opinion, and I will respect yours.

THINK BEFORE YOU POST A REPLY. I'm looking for intelligent insight, not angry words.

Also, let me just say that I am an optimist at heart. I'm a "glass is half-full" kinda guy.

I am finding myself unsettled today. I enjoy driving my Trooper 20 miles a day each way to work and can easily afford to fill it with gas. Heck, I can even afford $5.00 a gallon if I had to, but most folks can't. I haven't worried about it much.

I always figured gasoline prices would start to rise and other problems would come about when the world RAN OUT of its supply of crude oil. This seems to be about 50 years away, I figured hybrids, fuel cells, all this other cool stuff would evolve and grow by then.

Now my confidence has been shaken at its core.

The concept of "Hubbert's Peak" or "Peak Oil".

This new concept that I ran across introduces this thought:

Things will get tough just after the supply PEAKS. The idea is that THE OIL WON'T RUN OUT ANYTIME SOON, but THE CHEAP OIL WILL RUN OUT SOON AND ALL HELL WILL BREAK LOOSE.

I always figured the oil would run out in my lifetime, I just turned 30, and we probably don't have 50 years worth of crude left, So I figured by the time I was 80 we were going to need something new.

I never figured it could run out in my Trooper's lifetime.

At first I wanted to dismiss Peak Oil as propaganda from Enviro-Freak left-wingers. Then I wanted to dismiss it as propaganda from greedy oil barren right-wingers. The more I read, the more I started to get sick to my stomach.

The argument is that the trouble starts when the supply cannot keep up with the demand, not when the supply is exhausted. Unfortunately, this makes perfect sense.

The advocates of Peak Oil have been labeled "Chicken Little" and "The Boy Who Cried Wolf."

Please take a look at this and decide for yourself, let me know what you think.

What would make me feel better are some cold, hard facts about Alaska's oil reserves, some offshore drilling statistics, or something about an abundance some where.

Right now I don't feel very good at all.

Nate

[AlaskaVX]

Well up here in Alaska we definately have a LOT of oil, but it's not available due to it being a "nature preserve" or park. Environmentalists do not want to let 1% of that land go, for oil exploration. Do a google search on ANWR (Arctic National Wildlife Refuge) and you will see the facts. We also have a TON of natural gas here that we just burn off constantly. The oil companies say that there is not enough money in it for them to make a natural gas pipeline, so they would rather just burn it. :rolleyes:

[VX_PA]

I see a lot of people yelling for peace but I have not heard of a plan for peace. So, here's one plan.
1. The US will apologize to the world for our "interference" in their affairs, past & present. You know, Hitler, Mussolini, Tojo, Noriega, Milosovich and the rest of those good ol' boys: We will never "interfere" again.
2. We will withdraw our troops from all over the world, starting with Germany, South Korea and the Philippines. They don't want us there. We would station troops at our borders. No one sneaking through holes in the fence.
3. All illegal aliens have 90 days to get their affairs together and leave. We'll give them a free trip home. After 90 days the remainder will be gathered up and deported immediately, regardless of who or where they are. France would welcome them.
4. All future visitors will be thoroughly checked and limited to 90 days unless given a special permit. No one from a terrorist nation would be allowed in. If you don't like it there, change it yourself and don't hide here. Asylum would never be available to anyone. We don't need any more cab drivers or 7-11 cashiers.
5. No "students" over age 21. The older ones are the bombers. If they don't attend classes, they get a "D" (for "deport") and it's back home baby.
6. The US will make a strong effort to become self-sufficient energy wise. This will include developing non-polluting sources of energy but will require a temporary drilling of oil in the Alaskan wilderness. The caribou will have to cope for a while.
7. Offer Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries $10 a barrel for their oil. If they don't like it, we go some place else. They can go somewhere else to sell their production. (About a week of the wells filling up the storage sites would be enough.)
8. If there is a famine or other natural catastrophe in the world, we will not "interfere." They can pray to Allah or whomever for seeds, rain, cement or whatever they need. Besides, most of what we give them is stolen or given to the Army. The people who need it most get very little, if anything.
9. Ship the UN Headquarters to an isolated island some place. We don't need the spies and fair weather friends here. Besides, the building would make a good homeless shelter or lockup for illegal aliens.
10. All Americans must go to charm and beauty school. That way no one can call us "Ugly Americans" any longer. The language we speak is ENGLISH.....learn it...or LEAVE...
Now, ain't that a winner of a plan. The Statue of Liberty is no longer saying "Give me your poor, your tired, your huddled masses." She's got a baseball bat and she's yelling, "You want a piece of me?"

[BaM*BaM]

I think I just heard the complete definiton of the true "Ugly American" described as well as one could expect, in the above "sermon". It will take a lot more than a facelift to help what ails you!

[nater]

Thanks for the responses. But the question is:

1. Do you think the world's supply (including the Middle East, Alaska, etc) has PEAKED? (or will PEAK soon?)

2. Do you agree with the concept that PEAKING is bad enough to cause disastrous effects to our economy and civilization?


Nate

[nater]

AlaskaVX, this is the first thing I found when searching for ANWR

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4542853/

Nate

[AlaskaVX]

1. NO
2. YES

We still have a huge untapped resource so I don't think the peak is for another 20 years. My opinion based on just being in Alaska and always hearing about oil since that is what our economy is based on.

I don't know what they are basing that info on, they can't even explore for oil yet! We don't know how much oil we have, or don't have :confused:

[VX_PA]

Right now we currently rely on imported crude oil from the Middle East. There is a constant price struggle between the oil cartells and OPEC. Then OPEC lowers the standard number of imported barrels of crude to the U.S. This isn't a factor of use as much of a factor of how much can be refined to use as our fuel source. Fuel companies here continue to shut down refineries due to more and more federal regulations that they claim will cost too much to update the refinery to meet the new regs. Instead of updating them they opt to close them instead. That would be fine, but they can't open a new refinery due to other regulations banning them from starting a new refinery. Too many people with their hands in the pot screwing everything up.

This explains the price increase that continues to plague us. It's not really a problem of running out as much as a problem of being able to supply the refined product that the nation demands. That is where the demand peak problem is occuring.

[nater]

So your point is that the ANWR reserve is huge, but no one really knows how big until we actually tap it? Fair enough.

Nate

[AlaskaVX]

Originally posted by nater
So your point is that the ANWR reserve is huge, but no one really knows how big until we actually tap it? Fair enough.

Nate
Exactly!
Anyone know any billionaires? We could use a refinery up here! LOL

[VX_PA]

There's really no need to worry about running out of crude oil. Things to remember, Texas still has more oil than we can use in 3 lifetimes (just would cost more for fuel moguls to buy). Alaska has plenty of oil, not to mention beneath the Gulf of Mexico is a virtually untapped supply of oil. Worst case, Russia has plenty of oil if someone wants to retrieve it. Right now they will sell anything for a profit. Crude oil supply is really not something we need to be concerned about right now. If it were there would already be plenty of alternative energy sources available, we have the technology just not the will right now. There's way too much money to made with crude oil to give up on it.

[nater]

VX_PA, where do you get these numbers from? 3 liftimes of what? The current population and consumption rates? Or is population growth factored in? According to who's analysis?

Also, which alternative technologies do you think are viable and why?

I guess I'm looking for some hard numbers that paint a positive picture. I can't find anyone who says "There's plenty of oil" AND provides numbers/ studies/ analysis to back it up.

So far, the "We're almost out" folks have references to back up their claim.

Not one "There's plenty of oil" person has any hard references, just sort of a general optimism, which I had as well until this weekend when I started REALLY hunting for the truth, and have not come up with anything positive.

Nate

[VX_PA]

Here's a good read that shows crude resources to last well into the future. The worst crude oil report that I found predicts resources to last 112 more years.

http://www.schmidtwriting.com/articles/clients/ehp/petroleum.html

Here is the write-up estimating the 112 years:

http://www.aem.cornell.edu/research/researchpdf/wp0122.pdf

[nater]

VX_PA, thanks for the links. These are just the kinds of items I've been hunting for.

Nate