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Joe_Black
10/21/2004, 01:29 PM
Here's a great article from The Motley Fool about SIRIUS and XM. What I like most about it is the concept that these two aren't necessarily competing against each other as they are other types of broadcast media, which is how the market needs to be viewed in my opinion. It's a duopoly folks...

From The Motley Fool:

Fool.com: Is XM Getting Sirius? [Motley Fool Take] October 21, 2004
(http://www.fool.com/news/mft/2004/mft04102104.htm)
Is XM Getting Sirius?

By Rick Aristotle Munarriz (TMF Edible)October 21, 2004

There is more than meets the ear when it comes to yesterday's deal in which XM Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: XMSR) announced that it would be paying $650 million to broadcast major league baseball over its digital airwaves for the next 11 seasons.

For starters, back when rival Sirius (Nasdaq: SIRI) announced a $220 million deal for exclusive rights over seven years with the NFL, XM was quick to point out that Sirius overpaid for something that XM would have liked at a lower price. One executive even called the Sirius catch "desperate looking," which may seem odd now that XM will be paying nearly twice as much per year for baseball.

Granted, the regular baseball season features 10 times as many games as the NFL. The significance of landing a sport that also schedules plenty of games during weekday afternoons -- when commuters are more likely to tune in than over the weekend -- is also not lost on me. While baseball ratings are significantly lower than gridiron contests during the regular season, it's still a walk-off home run for XM. Does that mean that XM is the one that is "desperate looking" now? I don't think so.

But why is everyone always pitting XM against Sirius? I don't mean in a valuation sense, because that's a perfectly reasonable comparison when it comes to trying to peg a value for this dynamic sector. What perplexes me is why everyone assumes that just because they are the two satellite radio alternatives, they are fighting one another?

They're not really. They are more like a tag-team looking to take down free radio heavies like Clear Channel (NYSE: CCU) and Cumulus Media (Nasdaq: CMLS). And I don't know about you but I think XM and Sirius are going to kick their butts. Yes, I know, the words "butts" is weak. It makes me wish that I was scribing for satellite radio so I could really get colorful with the language.

That's ultimately one of the many lures of satellite radio. By 2006, Howard Stern will be exclusively on Sirius grilling celebrities with sex questions while Opie & Anthony will be free to broadcast all the debauchery and flatulence that they see fit on XM. Free radio will be beating its chest to thinning crowds on the merits of censorship that ultimately tastes as exciting as vanilla yogurt.

Sports will be a big deal on satellite radio, especially for the displaced fan, fantasy leaguer, or SportsCenter diehard, yet it was ultimately content that drove television viewers to snap their rabbit ear antennas and switch to cable and satellite television. Exclusive content, above and beyond the great commercial-free music streams, is what will ultimately have free radio staggering against the ropes.

Earlier this week, Sirius signed up its 700,000th subscriber. While that may pale compared to the 2.5 million subscribers that first-mover XM has landed, the disparity is no longer that wide. Sirius expects to sign up more than half as many subscribers as XM this quarter. But let's set aside all that to take a look at the bigger picture. With Sirius looking to close out the year with more than a million subscribers and XM aiming for 3.1 million, satellite radio as a whole is looking to win over roughly a million new fans this quarter. That's a million subscribers that will have little reason to revert back to free radio. And that's just now. With more carmakers coming out with factory-installed satellite radio and more content deals to come in the coming quarters, it's not even going to be a fair fight before too long.

XM and Sirius aren't the Yankees and Red Sox of satellite radio. They're playing on the same team. They are educating the same potential audience. If the game is longball, you've got to like their chances.

Are XM and Sirius misunderstood or overvalued? Have you checked out satellite radio? Will you be one of the million making the switch this quarter? All this and more in the XM Satellite Radio discussion board. Only on Fool.com.



Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz would probably still watch his language on satellite radio. He does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this story.

Dallas4u
10/21/2004, 01:59 PM
Didn't Sirius pay $500 mil for Stern for a 5 yr. contract? That's a hefty price tag in itself!

Hotsauce
10/21/2004, 03:44 PM
I'm shorting SIRI

John C.

Heraclid
10/21/2004, 04:40 PM
Well, I agree but will say this - I have XM and like it a lot, and have nothing against SIRIUS, but I think SIRIUS scored a lot better by getting the NFL games. XM may have baseball, but national interest in baseball has been steadily waning for quite a while. There are so many games in the course of a season of baseball that each individual game means less, and that translates into people just not giving a rip. Contrarily, in the NFL there are only 16 games in the season and so each game has much greater weight in the overall scheme of things. I think the pace of each (and thus ability to hold an audience) favors football too.

Joe_Black
10/21/2004, 07:25 PM
Originally posted by Hotsauce
I'm shorting SIRI

John C.

LOL! I bought a chunk of SIRI under $2 a share last year and am just going to sit on it. Wish I had a bunch of SIRI and XMSR, as they're both going nowhere but UP! The losers are going to be the Clearchannels and other free airwave broadcasters. It's like HBO and Showtime all over again... ;Do;

Hotsauce
10/22/2004, 02:33 AM
SIRI has a market cap of appx 4.5 BILLION, and only 600k subscribers @appx $13/month. thats 92M revenue. they paid stern 500M for his contract, appx 300M to nfl, a bunch more to MLB, eminem. They lost 200M+ last year. Figure out how many subscribers they need to get out of the red.

There is soo much dilution here. I've hit all the good shorts right so far this year, NFLX, GLBX, MACR, maybe I'm due to be wrong on one, but I don't think so. I'm up over 40% so far this year. I've been buying 06 2.50 puts.

Good luck to you whichever end you play it.

John C.

Heraclid
10/22/2004, 03:53 PM
This just in - XM is set to unveil a wearable, Walkman-type receiver.

yal^
10/23/2004, 10:30 AM
I was eyeballing Sirius for quite a while now trying to figure it out how much better I like their channel choices over XM.
Then the so called OPORTUNITY came; my employer gave all of us a chance to buy XM Radio receiver on a discounted price. And I mean really discounted from what I see on a market. The only condition was 6-month commitment, no contract, just prepaid three months and three months conditional. If I won't pay for the conditional three months they will bill me full price for the receiver.
Amazingly I got my package - even though it was ground shipping and should've taken up to 10 business days - in a matter of two days. I am going to have it installed on Monday. I am very nervous though.... Bought it on an impulse. You know how it is, opportunity calls, you grab it and then it's not what you expected... and I am so hesitant to have holes drilled anywhere in my VX I shiver just on a thought of it.

Green Dragon
10/23/2004, 11:06 AM
EZ install. I have XM radio installed on my VX. Mounted just fwd of handbrake .Not a single hole drilled. Antenna is on passenger side roof. Wire run down where windshield meets frame. You can use Black GE silicone sealant to assure wire stays in place at the windshield if you want.

Bob F

Joe_Black
10/23/2004, 12:51 PM
I put my SIRIUS antenna inside the rear wing, ran the wire through the same hole as the 3rd brake-light wiring, along the trim edging the headliner then down the A-pillar to the dash. Super clean! ;Dp;

yal^
10/25/2004, 08:11 PM
I'll bring the topic back. I need some info from you guys :)

I got antenna instalation all worked out. Now I have a question about power source. I have no, absolutely zero idea about electrical wirering in cars. Can someone point me where do I hook it up? Here is scan of my installation guide (http://home.comcast.net/~katarzyna.platt/VX/installation.jpg) . Now I just need to get enough courage to actually pull my dashboard appart ;eeko;