How Many VX's are still out there?

[rsteinmetz70112]

I don't know if this has been discussed here, in any event it it wasn't recently then it probably should be revisited.

I've been a little concerned about the low number of VX's found for sale and reported here. It seems like the number is pretty low. Lower than I'd expect.

Based on some Internet research I've done it seems after 11 years on average approximately 25% of a given model year's vehicles would be retired. And the rate would be approximately 10%/year and accelerating. That leaves approximately 3,000 remaining VX's on the road.

Assuming average resale rates you would expect to see 30-40 a month turn over. You would expect 4-5 a month to be removed from service , but I don't know how many would show up on copart or in yards, apparently not that many.

We aren't finding anything like those numbers. there are numerous reasons for that, including the fact that many sales are probably private sales or they don't get reported. It's possible that the owner pool is somewhat out of the ordinary, and hold on to their vehicles longer that average. It's possible attrition was much higher that average do to the nature of the vehicle and its use.

Anyone have any additional information or thoughts on this?

[vt_maverick]

I ran the 38 VINs that I have for 2000 Foxfire VX's and I could only confirm 1 that was completely out of commission (salvaged). All but 2-3 had good AutoCheck scores, and most had 3 owners or less. 38 VINs doesn't sound like a lot, but when you consider that's ~40% of the 90 that were manufactured in Foxfire that year, I think it's a pretty good representation.

Although prices don't yet reflect it, based on my research so far (running '01 Foxfire VINs tomorrow) it seems that many owners do respect the rarity of their trucks and tend to own them for a long time.

[VX KAT]

It's possible that the owner pool is somewhat out of the ordinary,

ya think?









sorry rs for the levity....you raise some interesting thoughts...

[rsteinmetz70112]

I ran the 38 VINs that I have for 2000 Foxfire VX's and I could only confirm 1 that was completely out of commission (salvaged). All but 2-3 had good AutoCheck scores, and most had 3 owners or less. 38 VINs doesn't sound like a lot, but when you consider that's ~40% of the 90 that were manufactured in Foxfire that year, I think it's a pretty good representation.

Although prices don't yet reflect it, based on my research so far (running '01 Foxfire VINs tomorrow) it seems that many owners do respect the rarity of their trucks and tend to own them for a long time.

The average retention for a car is around 6 years so 2-3 owners is about what you'd expect for the age.

Based on averages I'd expect 3-4 of your sample to be "retired" so that is lower than expected.

[rsteinmetz70112]

ya think?

sorry rs for the levity....you raise some interesting thoughts...

If you can't have fun you shouldn't own a VX

[blacksambo]

The attrition for off road type vehicles is much higher than for strictly road cars. So figure maybe, if we're lucky, half are left standing. I hope you can prove otherwise.

I can remember Tone Monday saying "we'll never have to worry about parts because so many were already in the wrecking yard". I've generally found this to be true. Any other opinions out there?

[rsteinmetz70112]

The attrition for off road type vehicles is much higher than for strictly road cars. So figure maybe, if we're lucky, half are left standing. I hope you can prove otherwise.

I can remember Tone Monday saying "we'll never have to worry about parts because so many were already in the wrecking yard". I've generally found this to be true. Any other opinions out there?

I don't disagree that some of these trucks may have seen harder than normal service but I doubt that many were ever off road. However being built for rough service more than expected may have survived. l don't know the balancing point, but I see very little evidence that there are large numbers in wrecking yards.

[Bob Barker]

You can mark me down for "1"

[rsteinmetz70112]

You can mark me down for "1"

1 what?

[Bob Barker]

1 vehicross! Thread title asks how many are still out there.

eye's just beein a smartass!

[RICHARD PAYNE]

I look almost everyday and I am shocked with the amount that are for sale for only 4150 having been imported. The last time I checked there were close to 24 on Autotrader alone. My guess is that there are probably some 3300 still out there. It is really hard to find a salvage one and they get parted quickly.FYI, since I have been buying it seems like prices have come up but then used prices have come up. If they are maintained I belive we could be looking a a special interest/potential collector car in the future.

[rsteinmetz70112]

24 is in the range I would expect based on average of resales of 30-50 a month, derived from average length of ownership. 3300 VXs/(6 years average ownership * 12months) = 45.83 sales/month. AutoTrader doesn't capture every vehicle for sale. When I look at AutoTrader I mostly see somewhat fewer than 24, usually in the high teen's but I don't look every day. 3300 is probably also within my expected range.

I am surprised by the relatively few that show up in wrecking yards. You'd think that people in that business would be aware of the rarity and tend to hold them for parts rather that scrap them. If other predictions hold up I would expect 6 or 10 a month to show up in wrecking yards or on copart. That doesn't seem to be happening.

[djvx]

I would have already bought a 2nd one, I saw a super clean one that made me drool It's been a few months since I saw it for sale and I can't get it outa my head! But the horrendous gas mileage is so bad I'm certain I won't own another one.
Unless I win the lottery, then I'm going on a mission to buy all of them!

[Mile High VX]

I am surprised by the relatively few that show up in wrecking yards. You'd think that people in that business would be aware of the rarity and tend to hold them for parts rather that scrap them. If other predictions hold up I would expect 6 or 10 a month to show up in wrecking yards or on copart. That doesn't seem to be happening.

I believe that many are sitting in the owners hands that have been wrecked or have major mechanical issues because the owner truly believes that one day they will take the time and spend the money to have it back in operational status again. I think this is why we don't see many go to salvage.

We have several members that have done that. VX Crazy has one, and so does our friend in WA that has the 5 speed conversion.

[blacksambo]

I think you are on to something here. How do we free these orphans up?